- The numbers also contain questions. Numbers tell stories the unaided eye cannot see. For numbers to make sense, however, they should be rightly sampled, reported and interpreted. This is because ...
In her book An Invisible Sign of My Own, Aimee Bender opines, “It is all about numbers. It is all about sequence. It’s the mathematical logic of being alive. If everything kept to its normal progression, we would live with the sadness, cry and then walk but what breaks us cleanest are the losses that happen out of order.”
I have always been a numbers person. In my perspective, all the answers lie in the data. The numbers also contain questions. Numbers tell stories the unaided eye cannot see. For numbers to make sense, however, they should be rightly sampled, reported and interpreted. This is because useful as they are, numbers can also be skewed to disguise the narrative, or to camouflage the real information.
When it comes to health, most of the parameters that are used to diagnose, prognosticate and to predict other aspects of disease outcome are all based on numbers. These numbers include blood pressure, pulse rate, body mass index, just to name a few. When it comes to public health, this is even more poignant. Information such as Case Mortality Rate (CMR), case per capita and deaths per capita enable epidemiologists to project the trajectory of a particular disease and to determine if the tools and strategies being used to manage the situation are effective, defective or need augmentation.
In a pandemic, these indicators also give individuals, journalists, civil society and other interested groups the opportunity to scrutinize the effectiveness of public office holders and the strategies they employ. It also allows comparisons to be made on how well one country’s handling of its public health emergency is progressing compared to others. For governments, it can be a key tool in aiding decision making regarding implementing lockdowns and other restrictive measures, as well as when to lift or prolong them. It also informs the health and economic forecast after these measures have been implemented.
Though these are not an exhaustive list of the value of numbers, it is clear that many depend on their robustness in times of crisis. It is therefore important that at all times there is transparency and trust in any set of numbers that is being relied on. To this end, all interested parties should ideally have access to the complete set of numbers promptly, as this helps to build trust. Sadly, there is a lot in history that points to the fact that many are not comfortable with the transparency of numbers. As Mark Twain famously popularized in the public consciousness, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Many who know the power in numbers have also manipulated and/or formulated statistical lies. Some do not do so deliberately, but through actions and inactions. A simple check through research literature provides countless evidence on how data and statistics are twisted to support arguments in diverse fields from the academics to public policy.
At the moment, there is considerable international angst about the level of transparency China allowed when COVID-19 was just an outbreak. As a result of this angst, there is a complaint before the International Criminal Court filed by Freedom Watch Inc. against the Peoples Republic of China and its ensigns claiming that they deliberately released an internationally outlawed bioweapon. Others have also claimed that China was not forthcoming with the World Health Organisation (WHO) regarding the timelines around COVID-19, the start of the outbreak, confirmed case count and the national mortality numbers. The fallout from this is that some including Donald Trump have taken their frustrations out on the WHO and its Director-General. Donald Trump has threatened to explore the option of withholding the United States contribution to the international body.
On social media, this alleged numbers manipulation has led to insults and name-calling with some bordering on racial abuse, against Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Clearly, in a pandemic, delaying numbers for whatever reason can lead to considerable anxiety.
Based on these, we have been keen on following the data output in Ghana on COVID-19. Our view is that there is a lack of clarity when it comes to lag times between when test results are received by officialdom and when they are officially made public. An official letter we have in our possession points to the fact that on occasion it is taking over forty-eight hours for data on confirmed cases and mortality to be released. Even more worrying is the fact that sometimes, this information is already in the public domain or reported on electronic news portals before it is confirmed by the government official.
We understand that due to administrative and procedural bottlenecks, some delays may be inevitable. However, we find the current delays exceptional and propose that steps must be taken to correct it. This because in this era of fast-moving communication, delays from state actors only allow for speculation and conjecture, thus increasing the likelihood that documents will be leaked and public mistrust will build. It is unfortunate for us to state that already this has started, a simple scan of the Twitter handle of the Ghana Health Service or other social media portals is all one needs to come to this conclusion.
It is our view that as a country, we cannot afford this. We owe it to each other to trust the robustness of official numbers. However, state actors should appreciate that trust is earned through actions that are forthright and amenable to change. Therefore, if the current communication strategy is the reason why these unfortunate delays are occurring, these must be re-examined. After all, the foremost reason why this data is published is to keep us updated with reliable information. If that is the case, then that position is defeated when the said data leads us down the path of mistrust and innuendo.
For those who think some us are too eager on obtaining this information, hear us out. We make no apologies for our eagerness neither do we accept your views that the government and its communicators must be cut some slack.
As citizens of the land, we expect our state operators to decrease tensions by communicating in candour. We also believe that the perceived lack of statistical communication is playing a part in the lackadaisical attitudes being shown towards social distancing and restrictions; a situation that if not arrested could be the fulcrum around which Ghana’s COVID-19 strategy will succeed or fall flat. For us, in this high-stake war, the numbers game cannot be toyed with. No losses should accrue due to disorderly reporting.
Let’s all remember that maybe, just maybe if China had been orderly in its numbers game, the entire planet won’t have been in virtual lockdown and all the deaths and economic nightmares for nations and families could have just been avoided.
Edited by Winifred Awa
